
Source: The Spectator (uk)
Date: 2010-06-09
Author: Alex Massie
Oh my, what a credulous press corps we have. Selectively
credulous that is. Put it this way: if a report compiled by a
Philip Morris board member suggested smoking was good for you it
wouldn\'t be taken terribly seriously. But let an ASH board member
- in this case Dr Anna Gilmore - put together a report that says
the smoking ban in England & Wales "caused" a "dramatic" fall in
heart attacks and the newspapers will be happy to be spoon-fed
their reporting. . . .
So has there been a fall in heart attacks? Yes. Does this have
anything to do with the smoking ban? That\'s harder to say. Let\'s
have a look at a chart: . . .
In short, we are expected to believe that there was going to be a
smaller than average decline in AMI in 2007/08, and that the
smoking ban saved the day. The fact that the decline in AMI was
unexceptional in 2007/08 is therefore used as proof that the
smoking ban had an exceptional effect!
This is fairy-tale science. It is sheer statistical manipulation
and it is breath-taking in it scope and ambition. But then, as I
have said before, it always had to be.

